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Issues Regarding Today's Multi-deck Blackjack Games
- Card Counting and Target 21 by Jerry Patterson
Jerry Patterson's Advantage Player Highlights
Reprinted from Advantage Player -- Jerry Patterson's Online Casino Gambling Newsletter
Issue 1: Long-term play versus short-term play
Most card counters understand that the small advantage achievable through
card counting, about 1%, is only attainable over the long term, that if they
play long enough, they will eventually get the money.
The problem is that it is difficult, if not impossible, to define just how many hands or how many hours of play constitute the long term.
Most card counters agree that long-term play is certainly not possible over a weekend or a day trip -- the average play duration of most blackjack players. Ergo most blackjack players play to the short term.
Stuart Perry, in his interesting book "Las Vegas Blackjack Diary," complained at the end of an intense 3-month card counting play in Las Vegas that his winnings did not reach expected value because he did not play to the long term.
If a three-month duration of intense, daily blackjack play cannot generate a long-term sample, what can?
Target 21 is a short-term system designed to get the money over an average playing session of a couple of hours, a day, or a weekend trip.
Issue 2: Low-card clumps and how they subvert the counter's advantage
Clumping of high and low cards caused by the nonrandom shuffle wipes out the card counter's edge in many games by inverting the information generated by the count.
As the count increases, indicating a surplus of high cards remaining in the shoe, the card counter increases his bet expecting a higher chance of winning, an advantage on the next hand.
But the opposite may occur and the counter may be betting up into a clump of low cards -- a disadvantage and a possible loss on a big bet instead of an expected win.
Not only that, but the counter ends up taking the same risk as many losing gamblers; he is betting up on successive losses.
Target 21 solves this problem by detecting these clump-card land mines for the card counter, and either triggering a table departure or a reduction of the bet size to a single unit.
Issue 3: Bankroll size versus betting spread
There is a problem which all but nullifies any potential theoretical advantage the short-term counter expects to realize. It concerns the theoretical advantage of around 1%, the betting spread, and the bankroll.
If the counter is using a betting spread of 12 to 1, which many traditional blackjack books recommend for the multi-deck shoe game, it is quite easy to lose 40 units or more in a shoe with heavy clumping. This ratio between the high bet and the low bet is necessary to overcome the small house edge and give the counter his 1% theoretical advantage.
Even without clumping, these swings in the counter's bankroll, engendered by the large betting spread and natural short-term variances, can be devastating and, in some instances, catastrophic to a player with the standard bankroll of 200 units.
Many blackjack card counting authors recommend bankroll sizes of 200 units, and, in my opinion based on years of experience, even a 200-unit roll is not safe for the traditional card counter in a heavily clumped shoe game or even in a game with normal variance.
It is interesting to note, however, that books published late in the 20th century have upped this units-per-bankroll number considerably -- some books, to prevent the risk of dropping the bankroll, now recommend 1000 to 2000 units in the card counter's bankroll.
With the Target 21 Method, you don't need a large bankroll because your risk of losing is much less - 100 units is standard and some players start with as little as 50. The key is knowing when to use the count for betting and when not to. Using Target's risk-averse betting methods, there is little risk of dropping a large bankroll.
Issue 4: The "other" 90% of the hands not affected by the count
Consider the short-term card counter in his or her attempt to grind out profits using a card counting system. First, the counter must contend with boredom because betting with the count is a waiting game.
It has been shown in many card counting books that high bets make up fewer than 5 to 10% of the hands. So when those high-bet opportunities present themselves, the adrenaline starts flowing as the big bet is pushed out. On a loss, another big bet as the count increases into a low card clump, and more adrenaline.
Many counters in this situation lose much more than their big bets; they lose control. Too many will overbet on subsequent high-count hands which dramatically increases the risk of ruin.
Target 21 does not consider just one small segment of the total number of hands received by the player. In addition to the 5 to 10% of hands which may qualify for a high-count bet, the method contains techniques for identifying high-bet opportunities in the other 90% of hands received.
In fact, the Target 21 Method presents a number of optional styles of play for blackjack players interested in alternatives: modified card counting, table selection, table departure, clump reading, partner play, team play, tactics for beating the shuffle-master machines, low-risk up-as-you-lose betting tactics for choppy, back-and-forth games and others.
Considerations for acquiring the Target 21 Method
Target 21 was first introduced to my clients way back in 1982 and is in use today by thousands of blackjack players.
Target 21 has been criticized by some blackjack authors who market card counting systems, most of whom do not understand that the Target 21 Method actually enhances the effectiveness and profitability of their own card counting systems.
Nineteen years of successful play by thousands of Target 21 players have generated a proven track record for this very powerful method. But many of the blackjack "gurus" still don't get it, and continue to recommend to their readers to bet up on a high count (who then continue to get clobbered on many high-count hands when they are unknowingly betting up into a low-card clump).
A few successful card counters, like Gene Palensar, do get it. Gene, a link to Kenny Uston's last card counting team, is quoted on my Web Site in an interview with Eric Nielsen. An excerpt:
"I see Target tables in the casinos. And I use Target to exploit them. Even Ken (Uston) talked about how inadequate shuffling creates clumping and how card counting is a failure in those situations. Ken agreed with Jerry.
"I employ Target techniques with card counting. If I don't have a player-biased game or dealer-breaking table, I am not going to bet up into a theoretical advantage. I'm not going to fall into that trap . . . I've lost too many times doing it."
Here, then, are my recommendations for the card counter in confronting the realities of today's multi-deck shoe games:
- Do not bet up with the count on successive losses as most other blackjack card counting books recommend; set a rigid table stop-loss amount and adhere to it, count or no count. Table departure is the best decision you can make under these losing conditions because it is quite possible that this same low-card clump may come back to whack you in the next shoe.
- Consider adding the Target 21 Method to your card counting strategy. Target 21 works well with point count systems as long as its money management and betting methods are adhered to, i.e. when to bet up with a high count and when not to.
- Consider some alternatives, such as those found in the Target 21 repertoire, on how to exploit the other 90% of the hands where the count does not indicate an increase in your bet.
- Consider abandoning the count altogether in the multi-deck shoe games and choosing an alternative non-count method from the Target 21 menu of strategies and tactics for getting the edge -- an edge based on biases caused by the nonrandom shuffle -- an edge in which you will win more hands than you will lose and, in some cases, an edge which will generate a huge score in dealer-breaking tables.
- Play the single- and double-deck games in which card counting results more closely approach the theoretical models. A traditional point-count system can be used in these games, although I still recommend enhancing it with appropriate Target 21 techniques. There are many such games in the Nevada casinos and many casinos in other locations also offer these games.
If you would like a 12-page brochure with complete details on the Target 21 Method, click below to email my office; please include your name and snail mail address in the body of the email and insert "T21" in the subject box so we will know which brochure to send you: jpe21@aol.com
For more information on the Target 21 method inlcuding a sample of Target's 21 Winning Factors and proof that Dealer-breaking tables exist, purchase a copy of my best selling book **Casino Gambling** the #1 selling gambling book on amazon.com.
It contains six chapters on blackjack:
- Chapter 3: Blackjack Basics
- Chapter 4: State-of-the-art Advantage Blackjack Systems (review)
- Chapter 5: Exploitable Biases in Multi-deck Blackjack Games
- Chapter 6: Dealer Breaking and Player Favorable Games (proof)
- Chapter 7: Blackjack's Winning Factors for Multi-deck Shoe Games
- Chapter 8: Advantage Blackjackj for Single- and Double-deck Games
Or call my office at 1-800-257-7130 to order your copy. If you wish, send a check for $13.95 plus $4.00 for postage and handling (total $17.95) to: JPE, Inc.; P.O. Box 236; Gardnerville, NV 89410.
If you would like immediate information on the Target 21 Home Study Course, visit my Web Site - Casino Gamling Edge
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